Project Explores Expansion Of Negative Emissions Technologies

Achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and limiting global warming will require enormous amounts of negative emissions worldwide. In a new Formas project, researchers will investigate how carbon capture technologies can be scaled up in the Nordic region to deliver negative emissions.

Negative carbon dioxide emissions play a key role in every global scenario that meets the Paris Agreement's temperature targets, and are an important part of Sweden's plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045. Some of this can be achieved through nature-based solutions, such as afforestation and ecosystem restoration. But it will also require significant contributions from technological methods for carbon dioxide removal, says Kenneth Möllersten, researcher at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.

The capture and storage of biogenic carbon dioxide, known as bio-CCS or BECCS (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage), is one of the most widely discussed technologies for negative emissions. In Sweden, the technology could primarily be applied to pulp mills and cogeneration plants.

According to the European Commission, some 350-400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide need to be captured by 2040, and even more by 2050. Of these, approximately 50–75 million tonnes need to be permanently captured by 2040 – in the form of carbon dioxide storage from biomass or when carbon dioxide is collected directly from the air, DACCS (Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage).

Large-scale and sustainable expansion
The INVEST-CDR project aims to promote large-scale and sustainable expansion of technologies for carbon capture, BECCS and DACCS in the Nordic region, in order to contribute to climate goals and achieve net-negative emissions. By linking technical, economic and societal perspectives, the project explores how investments, instruments and market models can be designed to enable effective and equitable carbon removal systems.

The expansion of BECCS and DACCS faces major structural challenges. The technologies are based on value chains where all parts – from capture to final storage – must be developed in collaboration. If dependencies between actors and steps along the chain are not managed, investments risk being stalled or not made at all. In addition, the value chain is characterized by high costs and a small number of actors who can control critical elements, which can further hinder the effective and large-scale expansion of carbon capture, says Kenneth Möllersten.

One particularly difficult challenge the project addresses is financing models for the very large negative emissions that will be required after 2050, when the polluter pays principle will be difficult to apply because the remaining emissions will then have to be very small.

The work is based on stakeholder analyses, energy system modelling, economic analyses and workshops involving researchers, energy companies, transport and storage operators, financial market actors and government agencies.

The results will be used to provide actionable proposals to policy-makers and industry on how carbon capture can be scaled up in a cost-effective manner, says Kenneth Möllersten.